October 22, 2025
Stephen Northey, together with Damien Giurco and international collaborators, has published a new peer‑reviewed paper in Mineral Economics examining the long‑term limits of global primary copper supply.
The study, titled Estimating an upper limit for primary copper supply using empirically derived mineral resource‑to‑production rate relationships (Mineral Economics, Vol. 39, pp. 7–23), investigates how much copper could realistically be produced each year from known mineral deposits under highly optimistic assumptions.
Using empirical data from existing copper mines, the researchers derived relationships between mineral resources, reserves and achievable production rates for different deposit types and mining methods. These relationships were then applied to the global dataset of known copper deposits. A Monte Carlo analysis was used to estimate uncertainty and derive upper bounds for annual copper supply. The results suggest that, even under the assumption that all known deposits could be mined simultaneously, global primary copper production faces clear physical limits. The study finds that annual primary copper supply from currently defined mineral reserves could reach an upper limit of approximately 22–27 million tonnes per year, while the broader set of identified mineral resources could support 59–69 million tonnes per year. Importantly, published demand scenarios indicate that future copper demand may approach the upper limits derived from reserves within this century.These findings highlight the growing importance of resource efficiency, extended product lifetimes, recycling and circular‑economy strategies alongside continued mineral exploration. The work provides critical context for discussions around electrification, decarbonisation and the material requirements of low‑carbon technologies, for which copper is a key enabling metal.
📄 The paper can be accessed here:
https://doi.org/10.1007/s13563-025-00558-y
